Monday, November 28, 2011

The Black Swan and Me Part 4

I certainly have been inactive these past several weeks or at least inactive with regards to writing my blog.  So much so that I hardly know where to restart.  I will reflect on the seven (7) principles for a Black-Swan Robust society I did not cover in the blog immediately preceding this entry.  I previously addressed principles 2,3, & 4 so I should start today's entry with principle number one. 

"1) What is fragile should break early, while it's still small.  Nothing should even become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks become the biggest." 

"Don't put your all your eggs in one basket" is the first notion that comes to mind. "I'm all in!" is another.  An earthquake, "the big one," is a third. Small earthquakes relieve the earth's stress and strain. Mother nature's way of breaking early while still small.  Diversification is a key word for investing.  In science, we put our hunches to the test and from the results we modify and retest and modify and retest.  So a hunch that is wrong in a big or small way can be set aside or refined for further testing.  Many start-ups go out of business in their first year. They're small and the upheaval to their community is likely to be small.

To me the idea here is to keep things simple and small, local, and therefore redundant.  That is, there will be several small operations that provide the same product or service. If one goes down there is another at the ready.  


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